Smurf's Prospect Speculation & Pondering
Pitchers Edition
Good evening everyone. Thank you for checking in today.
Can you feel it? It’s coming. Pitchers and catchers are reporting to spring training in a couple weeks with spring training games in a month’s time. Opening Day is on the horizon! Warms the soul in the frigid cold and depths of snow of January.
Those from MLB Pipeline to BA to Prospects Live are updating their top prospect lists. Everyone is looking to see who may break out to fly up rankings or comes out of nowhere to jump into the Top 100. There’s some excitement for the upcoming season in the air to be sure.
As I jump into the fray, I wanted to try a little something different for me. Previously we spent time reviewing the top of prospect lists along with some Canadian MILB content. So I decided to find my version of “under the radar” prospects starting with a couple of pitchers.
What constitutes Under The Radar for me?
They have to be completely unknown. Their name can be familiar but other than that, I’m looking for a new name to me. Doesn’t mean they may not be known. Prospect junkies of these systems or super deep fantasy dynasty leagues may know of them. To me - a mystery
They would need to be young. I put the line at 22 years of age or younger. For pitchers, their MLB ETA is going to be a decent amount of time away. What we are looking for is improvement statistically year over year and some advancement in the system by the end of 2023
Statistical thresholds:
K% over 20%, BB% under 10%, FIP under 4.50. Nothing too radical here. Strike out a good amount of batters. Don’t walk too many. With younger pitchers there maybe a good K rate but the control lacks, blowing up the BB%. If there’s someone who doesn’t walk too many at a younger age and still in the early stages of development, there could be an opportunity for long term success. No guarantees of course but a reasonable place to begin.
I do not have access to things such as spin rates and other advanced pitch metrics metrics unless they are publicly available.
With all that said, sit back, relax, grab a beaver tail, Irish up that coffee and let’s see if we can find an under the radar pitching prospect or two to follow for 2022……
First up, we head to perpetual prospect factory in the Cleveland Guardians. Currently this LHP is ranked as the #36 prospect by FanGraphs in the Guardians system. They have given a MLB ETA of 2025. Let’s get the details on our first pitcher -
Will Dion, 5ft 10in, 180 lbs, age 22
Drafted by Cleveland - 2021 MLB Draft, 9th Round, 276 pick overall, McNeese State
K% 30.7, BB% 6.7, 3.20 FIP over 115.1 IP in A ball. Will did pitch in High A, only for 12.2 IP. That said 15 K’s and only 3 BB’s over those innings was a nice start there
Other 2022 stats (128 total IP): G 25, GS 25, 1.01 WHIP, 11.44 K/9, 2.39 BB/9, 0.63 HR/9
Just by looking at those numbers, I believe there’s something to investigate further and follow. The one’s that stood out to me the most - 2.39 BB/9 and the 0.63 HR/9. Tells me he doesn’t walk batters and doesn’t give up very many HRs (7.1 HR/FB).
Let’s take a look in action -
Probably the easiest comp you could ever have here. From the entire delivery to the shape of the curveball, it is Mr. Clayton Kershaw.
Here’s a 2022 hilight of Kershaw and you can see similarities immediately -
I’m diving into the Will Dion arch just on the Kershaw comp alone🤣 but some of the numbers seem to back up my follow. I do tend to trust college pitching prospects more than HS pitching prospects, so this ends up following my very general prospect preferences. More on that in a minute. Nothing in stone of course, but a bit of a preference. Here are the Fangraphs scouting grades for Will before moving on to our next pitcher -
We now head to the Pacific Northwest and into the Seattle Mariners minor league system. This RHP was singed by the M’s out of the Domincan Republic as a 17 year old in 2017. Yes I know….not a college pitcher, not a HS pitcher but a Dominican signing haha. I think the key are the words are very, general and preferences😁 We all develop preferences in the prospect universe but I try to never rule out something just because it happens to be outside of those very general preferences. Brings an opportunity to investigate further, then see if we continue on board or not. So let’s take a look at the next pitcher -
Juan Mercedes, 6ft 2in, 190 lbs, age 22
signed by the Mariners in 2017 to a minor league contract
Over 107.2 IP in High A (had 4 IP in A as well as 10 IP in AAA) a 27.6 K%, 6.7 BB% and 4.17 FIP
Other overall 2022 stats (over 121.2 IP): G 26, GS 22, 1.25 WHIP, 10.13 K/9, 2.66 BB/9, 1.11 HR/9
Threw the first no-hitter in Everett Aquasox history in 2022
So the first thing that jumped out to me was the 1.11 HR/9. I’m seeing, at least from this high level stat-line POV, that Juan strikes out a good number and doesn’t walk many showing an above average BB/9 rate. So let’s get a little further into that 1.11 HR/9. Juan’s HR/FB of 13.3% is let’s say…..challenging. This is not quite double the rate of Will from above, which makes me pause. During his time in High A, the level where the vast majority of his innings pitched were in 2022, he had a fly ball percent of 39.9%. For a “fly ball pitcher” that wouldn’t be out of line in any real way. So that leads me to believe that ballpark factors are in play. Baseball America has a great breakdown of 2022 Minor League Park Factors. They are showing Everett with a 154 Park Factor on homeruns. What does that mean? With PF of 100 being average, a PF of 154 tells you HRs are 54% more frequent there. That undoubtedly will influence his home starts and appearances. With his FB% being in and around 40% for his career we can say, for now at least, that it will continue on. As long as Juan is pitching in High-A, we can expect to see elevated HR/FB rates. The ~13% rate is at the extremely high end and I would expect to see some settling back into more normal ranges once Juan is pitching in more of the average to “pitching friendly” ballparks.
Let’s take a look at the Juan in action -
I’m also on board with Juan. I would be very interested to see Mercedes in a more pitching friendly environment, closer 100 PF on HRs, then reviewing how the performances and stats line up. Definitely on board with the K% & BB% but have concerns with the HR/FB%.
We have ourselves a couple pitchers to get some looks at and review at mid-season as well as at season end. Let’s see if we end up staying on board or ringing the bell and gettting off the bus at the next stop.
There will be a hitter equivalent of this upcoming soon but for now, we wrap it up here. Thank you stopping by and I’ll be speaking with you again soon. Until then…..Keep It 80 Grade.