Smurf's Prospect Speculation & Pondering
Hitter's Edition
Welcome back for some speculating and pondering. Similar to the previous speculations on a couple of “under the radar” pitchers, it’s time for a couple batters to make their appearances.
What will constitute “Under The Radar” for me from a hitter perspective?
Similr to the pitchers:
They have to be completely unknown. Their name can be familiar but other than that, I’m looking for a new name to me. Doesn’t mean they may not be known. Prospect fiends or super deep dynasty league player may know of them. To me - a mystery
They would need to be young. I put the line at 22 years of age or younger. Their MLB ETA is going to be somewhere around 2025. What we are looking for is improvement statistically year over year and some advancement in the system by the end of 2023.
Statistical Thresholds:
My usual starting place is wOBA ( > .340), then will peek at wRC+ ( > 115)
Typically i then look for what I loosely term as “not an outrageous K rate”. Younger guys swing the bat. A lot. Not always wisely. So all I’m looking for is something in the sub 25% range that I will pair with BB% north of 10% to see if we can see some guys that are making decent decisions at the dish.
This is where I have went beyond the paywall. I did use my Patreon subscription to Prospects Live. There is a fabulous prospects tool, one of many, they provide through their Patreon. A hitter prospect tool that is completely data driven. I will not go into any specifics, for obvious reasons, but will link to their Patreon below. Check it out and if your subscription budget allows, I would definitely recommend.
Sit back, relax, grab your beverage of choice and let’s get into it —
To get started we go to the Lone Star state and a player on their Top 30 list. To be truthful, I don’t know the Houston Astros system very well, other than the very top. This prospect is currently listed as #21 on the Prospects Live Astros Top 30. Let’s take a look at our first hitter -
Kenedy Corona OF R/R, 5ft 11in, 184 lbs
spent 45 games in A with 62 games in High-A posting wOBA’s of .382 & .389 respectively. wRC+ of 128 and 135 were achieved in 2022
K% rates are in range (22.9% in A, 22.6% in High-A)
BB% also in a decent place (11.2% in A and 10% in High-A)
From a data perspective: 90th percentile exit velocity is in the above average range while making good swing decisions with better than average chase rate.
Pleasant surprise - .230 (A) & .208 (High-A) ISO showing some pop
Pleasant surpirse #2 - FanGraphs SPD of 8.3 while in HIgh-A
Put this all together and there is definitely something here to watch going into 2023. To seal that decision, Kenendy was named an Astros Organization All Star for 2022. I’m looking forward to getting some looks and reviewing a little later on this year.
Up next we head to Steel Town for our next player. This MIF spent the year playing in Bradenton (A). Let’s take look at our next hitter -
Tsung-Che Cheng 2B/SS L/R, 5ft 7in, 155 lbs
385 AB, wOBA .372, wRC+ 129
K% 20.7, BB% 13.8
From a data perspective: makes above average zone contact with an average chase rate
Pleasant surprise - FanGraphs SPD of 8.7
Pleasant surpirse #2 - SwStr% of 9.6%
Cheng is a player who will make contact and spray the ball around. Of his 104 hits last season, around 87% of his hits were singles and doubles. Obviously a contact over power profile at this time. However, Cheng did have a total of 38 XBH and was on the cusp of a .800 OPS. Thirty three stolen bases in 39 attempts is also something to like with his profile. Tsung-Che was named an organizational All Star for the Pirates at the SS position as well as a FSL Post Season All Star. Looking forward to some looks here and we’ll review how they are doing during the upcoming 2023 season.
Historical Random Canadian MLB Player
Here are this RHP career numbers, from Baseball Reference:
Drafted by the Texas Rangers in 1995 in the 3rd round out of Elphinstone HS, Gibsons BC
Made their MLB debut May 23, 1998 vs the Pirates, 17255 player in MLB history
Last game: September 29, 2013 vs the Orioles
Spent time with the Cubs, Marlins, Reds, Red Sox and Rangers
Our former MLB Canadian is …..
🍁🍁🍁
Ryan Dempster
Thank you for checking in today. I’ll be chatting with you in a while. Until then…..Keep It 80 Grade.
Prospects Live Patreon - https://www.patreon.com/prospectslive/